SHFE Tin Continues to Rise Strongly and Hits Limit Up, Spot Trades Stagnate [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On January 14, 2026, SHFE tin futures opened at 382,390 yuan/mt in early trading, rising by 8% to hit the limit-up at 413,170 yuan/mt. On the LME, the three-month tin contract closed at $52,500 overnight, up 6.83%, as macro factors drove gains across the broader metals sector, with bullish sentiment dominating the market. In the short term, it is necessary to continuously monitor overseas macro developments and their boosting effect on market sentiment, while remaining vigilant against a rapid price pullback after bulls exit.

According to the latest data from Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the country's total exports of refined tin in December 2025 amounted to 5,002.83 mt, down 32.9% MoM but up 6.8% YoY. The total export value reached $198.09 million, falling 26.1% MoM but rising 46.7% YoY.

Today, the total tin warrants on the SHFE increased to 7,107 mt, up 862 mt from the previous trading day. By region, inventory in Guangdong rose significantly, with warrants increasing by 900 mt to 5,346 mt, mainly due to increases of 501 mt and 399 mt at the 830 Huangpu and Guangdong Jushen warehouses, respectively. Inventory in Shanghai dropped back slightly, down 38 mt to 1,364 mt, possibly due to transportation issues causing little change in warrants currently. Inventory in Jiangsu remained stable, with warrants totaling 397 mt in locations such as Wuxi. According to SMM, some smelters are preparing for delivery recently, gradually moving goods to delivery warehouses. It is expected that warrants across regions will continue to grow tomorrow, with subsequent attention to the potential impact of warehouse arrivals and registration progress on the futures structure.

In the spot market, against the backdrop of consecutive futures limit-ups, most suppliers held prices pending sale, while downstream demand followed sporadically for rigid needs. Since December, most deep-processing enterprises have long faced high raw material costs and pressure on capital chains, greatly suppressing current purchase willingness. The pattern of weak supply and demand is expected to persist before the Chinese New Year. As domestic consumption gradually weakens in the second half of January, mid- and downstream enterprises may enter holiday mode early in February.

In the short term, tin prices are likely to hover at highs. Industrial customers are advised to prudently manage risks, avoid blindly chasing highs, and closely monitor Myanmar export data and changes in Yunnan tin concentrate TCs.